Researchers warn Gaza death toll may have hit 186,000

In a letter published by the journal Lancet on 5 July, three senior health professionals from the US, UK, and Canada have warned that the death toll in Gaza may have already reached 186,000 or be heading towards that. [1]

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Dr. Rasha Khatib, a Research Scientist and Clinical Epidemiologist at the Advocate Aurora Research Institute; Clifford Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; and Professor Salim Yusuf, a Canadian-Indian epidemiologist and cardiologist, state,

“In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths.

“Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37,396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza.

“Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2,375,259, this would translate to 7.9 per cent of the total population in the Gaza Strip.

“A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28,000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58,260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85,750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.” [1]

10,000 buried under rubble

If the estimated ultimate death toll seems far fetched, it is essential to remember that Gazans have had no chance to rebuild or clear any destroyed school buildings, hospitals, homes, or roads since the beginning of October 2023.

Indeed, along with UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees) stating that it will take a staggering fifteen years not to rebuild Gaza but to merely take away the decimated infrastructure, another UN agency — the OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) — said in May that there could be 10,000 buried in the rubble. [2] [3]

As the authors of the Lancet correspondence note,

“Collecting data is becoming increasingly difficult for the Gaza Health Ministry due to the destruction of much of the infrastructure.

“The Ministry has had to augment its usual reporting, based on people dying in its hospitals or brought in dead, with information from reliable media sources and first responders. This change has inevitably degraded the detailed data recorded previously.

“Consequently, the Gaza Health Ministry now reports separately the number of unidentified bodies among the total death toll. As of May 10, 2024, 30 per cent of the 35,091 deaths were unidentified.” [1]

Hannibal Directive approved at start of genocide

While the barrage of Zionist state crimes against humanity is well documented by now, it is particularly telling to see Israeli media outlets such as Haaretz exposing the regime.

In a report released on 7 July, the paper revealed that the so-called Hannibal Directive had been given the green light on 7 October, in at least three locations. [4]

The controversial military order — believed to have first been established in the 80s — authorises the use of lethal force to stop prisoners being taken, even to the extent of killing or endangering its own soldiers or civilians. The alleged aim is to avoid strategic complications around prisoner release negotiations. [5]

Analysis

ANALYSIS

Faraz Khan

News Editor

Eye-watering estimate closer to reality?

A letter published in the British medical journal, the Lancet, has issued a stark warning that the true death toll from the Gaza genocide by Israel could exceed 186,000. So while the current official figure stands at nearly 38,800, the report suggests this figure is significantly underestimated.

And while this new number is painful to comprehend, it is in huge contrast to those who have repeatedly claimed that Gaza's government has been overstating the number of dead. As the genocide goes on, it is becoming increasingly difficult for such detractors to continue to question the only source of information coming out of the occupied region.

The estimate by the three medical professionals includes indirect deaths from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases.

Over 28,000 pounds of bombs have been dropped

In addition, a major factor in the extensive death toll is the 14,000 bombs that have been dropped on the occupied region, each weighing in at 2,000 pounds — bombs that the US supplied to Israel.

These bombs have caused immediate casualties and completely devastated Gaza’s infrastructure, leading to further deaths.

As the authors of the Lancet letter have stated,

'The number of bodies still buried in the rubble is likely substantial, with estimates of more than 10,000.'