First Erdoğan loss in 21 years as Turkey opposition wins

In a stunning turn of events, Turkey’s main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), has secured a significant victory in local elections, retaining key cities including Istanbul and Ankara. [1]

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İmamoğlu secures landslide in Turkey’s largest city Erdoğan concedes defeat amid waning public support Economic woes played a decisive role Analysis Also read

This outcome has delivered a major setback to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which has dominated Turkish politics for over two decades. [1]

Outside the AKP headquarters in Ankara, Erdoğan told supporters,

“Regardless of the results, the winner of this election is primarily democracy.

“Unfortunately, we couldn’t get the result we wanted in local elections. Everything happens for a reason.

“We will rebuild trust in places where our nation has chosen someone else.” [1]

İmamoğlu secures landslide in Turkey’s largest city

Ekrem İmamoğlu, the CHP Mayor of Istanbul since June 2019, proclaimed an unexpectedly large victory over the AK Party candidate, Murat Kurum, by a margin of just under one million votes. [2]

The CHP success has reached beyond Istanbul and Ankara, with victories in 36 out of Turkey’s 81 provinces, including Izmir, the country’s third-largest city. [1]

The unanticipated level of unrest displays a considerable shift in public opinion, with the opposition making notable advances in traditional AKP strongholds.

A shocked İmamoğlu told a large crowd of supporters,

“My dear Istanbulites, you opened the door to a new future today.

“Starting from tomorrow, Turkey will be a different Turkey. You opened the door to the rise of democracy, equality, and freedom… You ignited hope at the ballot box.

“Turkey will blossom into a new era in democracy as of tomorrow. March 31, 2024, is the day when democratic erosion ends and democracy begins to recover.” [3]

Erdoğan concedes defeat amid waning public support

In response to the disastrous result, President Erdoğan, 70, acknowledged his party’s losses and vowed to address any shortcomings.

Despite his presidential term running until May 2028, this defeat is an acute setback for the veteran leader.

In an ideal scenario, Erdoğan had hoped to regain control of major urban areas including Izmir, Ankara, Istanbul, and elsewhere. [1]

Economic woes played a decisive role

For years, Turkey has grappled with soaring inflation, presenting a substantial challenge to the government and its efforts to stabilise the economy.

Official figures reveal that prices are continuing to surge, inflation stood at 67.07 per cent in February. [4]

Moreover, a Reuters forecast in March estimated that the rate would only ease to 42.7 per cent by the end of 2024. [4]

This ongoing economic instability has undoubtedly taken a toll on voters, wearing down their confidence in the governing party’s ability to address critical issues. [4]

Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the European Institute of the London School of Economics, said,

“The election suggested economic factors had trumped Erdoğan’s variety of identity politics.

“The election would not only inject new life into the CHP, but also consolidate the position of İmamoğlu, who previously won the city’s mayorship twice in 2019 after the authorities annulled his initial election.

“He is the only politician who succeeded in beating Erdoğan three times.” [3]

Analysis

ANALYSIS

Shaykh Dr. Haitham al-Haddad

Senior Scholar

This is a serious loss

The elections that took place on Sunday were a major loss for the AK Party.

Yes, the outcome of the election was expected by many people, but not to this extent of loss from the AK Party perspective.

Many political commentators agree that the main reason for the AKP loss is the state of the economy and the frustration felt by ordinary Turkish people, particularly because the government is unable to put a stop to rising inflation, in addition to repeatedly increasing the interest rate.

Not keeping to commitments

Also a key part of this is that Erdoğan keeps breaking his promises.

For example, he promised in the beginning that he would not increase interest rates, but then appointed a Minister of Finance who broke this promise and increased it.

Likewise with Gaza and the AK Party positions on the topic — it seems that their passive or negative policies and positions towards Gaza had an important role in this result.

Young voters have short memories

Yes, it is unfortunate that many people did not vote for the AK Party, but do those voters have a clear idea and confidence that the CHP will be able to solve the country's economic challenges? How is the party going to resolve those problems now?

Also, many voters have not experienced the period before the AK Party, so while they might think that if they remove the AKP, they will be in a better position, the reality is that they don't have a clue. Perhaps, they just heard their fathers talking about it, but they did not witness it themselves.

And even if we say that economic challenges can be resolved, what about the fact that the CHP is known to be keen on proscribing Hamas as a terrorist organisation?

This defeat is required to bring about success

From my experience, we have to admit that one of the main shortcomings of the AK Party is regarding da'wah.

People will not vote for them because of ideological reasons, because the masses are not that concerned about the Dīn.

Moreover, because the AK Party has not fulfilled some of its promises, some feel that it is not representing the original Islamic party values. But again, that doesn't mean that you vote for the CHP as a result.

This is the Qadr of Allah, because He (subḥānahu wa ta'āla) wants to teach people by allowing them to see what will happen if other parties take over — especially the youth who used to be so critical of Erdoğan and his party.

And we need to take heed from the experiences of Egypt and even Sudan, after they toppled the Islamic leadership. What has happened to them? What will happen to them? Have they improved? No, they have not.

So we can conclude positively by saying that this defeat is needed for better success or better progress, but the key thing is that we need to take heed of it, work based upon it, and take lessons from it, otherwise this defeat will last for a long time.